Typhoon #GoringPH (SAOLA)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 29 August 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.
TYPHOON GORING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
Location of Center (10:00 AM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data at 180 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.6°N, 123.3°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 190 km/h, and central pressure of 950 hPa
Present Movement
Northwestward Slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 280 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
• Wind threat: Storm-force winds
• Warning lead time: 18 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
• Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
LUZON:
The southern portion of Batanes (Sabtang, Uyugan, Ivana, Mahatao, Basco) and the northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is.)
TCWS No.2
• Wind threat: Gale-force winds
• Warning lead time: 24 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
LUZON:
The rest of Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and the extreme northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
TCWS No.1
• Wind threat: Strong winds
• Warning lead time: 36 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
The northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-Lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala, Santo Niño), the eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan), the northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Santa Marcela), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Vintar, Pasuquin, Burgos, Dumalneg, Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow noon
• 100-200 mm: The northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands
• 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern portion of Abra, the northern portion of Apayao, and the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan.
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow noon to Thursday noon
• Greater than 200 mm: Batanes and Babuyan Islands
• 100-200 mm: The northern portion of Ilocos Norte and the northwestern portion of Cagayan
• 50-100 mm: Apayao, Abra, the northern portion of Ilocos Sur, the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the rest of Ilocos Norte
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are still expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #10 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Wind Signal No. 4 is the highest possible warning level due to severe winds that may be hoisted by PAGASA over Extreme Northern Luzon.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Today: Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
• Tomorrow: Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Visayas.
• Thursday: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and western seaboards of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas, and the northern seaboard of Mindanao. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel) due to hazardous sea condition. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #10 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to follow a mainly northwestward or west northwestward path across the Luzon Strait from today until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or Thursday morning. The latest track forecast indicates that the typhoon may pass very close or make landfall in the vicinity of Batanes between tomorrow morning and afternoon (although a slight southward shift in the track forecast may bring the eye and eyewall region of the typhoon to the northern portion of Babuyan Islands). During this period, the typhoon is forecast to persist in strength by the time it passes very close or over Batanes (although gradual re-intensifying and reaching into a super typhoon category is not ruled out).
• Outside the PAR region, the typhoon will continue its west northwestward movement for the remainder of Thursday before turning more westward by Friday, increasingly unfavorable conditions over the waters southeast of mainland China will trigger a weakening trend. By the time GORING may make landfall in the vicinity of southeastern China (near Hong Kong/Pearl River Delta area) on Sunday, it will have weakened to minimal typhoon strength.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 PM today.
Link: tinyurl.com/GoringPH
