Super Typhoon #GoringPH (SAOLA)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 30 August 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 AM today.
SUPER TYPHOON GORING CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BALINTANG CHANNEL
Location of Center (4:00 AM): The center of the eye of Super Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Sabtang, Batanes (20.0°N, 121.6°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 240 km/h, and central pressure of 920 hPa
Present Movement: Northwestward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 340 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 4
Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
Warning lead time: 12 hours
Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Batanes (Sabtang, Uyugan, Ivana, Mahatao, Basco) and the northern portions of Babuyan Islands (Calayan Is., Babuyan Is.)
TCWS No. 3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon
The rest of Batanes and the southwestern portion of Babuyan Islands (Fuga Is., Dalupiri Is.)
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
The northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Claveria, Abulug, Ballesteros, Santa Ana, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Bangui, Dumalneg)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
The rest of Cagayan, Apayao, the northern portion of Kalinga (Balbalan, Pinukpuk, Rizal), the northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lagayan, Lacub, Malibcong, San Juan, Danglas, La Paz), the rest of Ilocos Norte, and the extreme northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
• Greater than 200 mm: The southern portion of Batanes and the northwestern portions of Babuyan Islands
• 100-200 mm: Ilocos Norte, the northern portion of Apayao, the extreme northwestern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the rest of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Sur, Abra, the northwestern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the rest of Apayao
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #11 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Violent, life-threatening conditions from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signals No. 4 is hoisted, resulting in significant to severe impacts.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Today: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas
• Tomorrow and on Friday: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of the northern portion of Babuyan Islands and the southern portion of Batanes.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for most seaboards of Luzon and Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel) due to hazardous sea condition. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #13 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to follow a mainly northwestward or west northwestward path across the Luzon Strait from today until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow morning. GORING will likely remain as a super typhoon until Friday.
• Outside the PAR region, GORING will continue its west northwestward movement for the remainder of tomorrow before turning more westward on Friday (while slowing down), then west southwestward on Sunday (e.g., moving nearly parallel to the coast of Guangdong, China, although a landfall over the mainland China area on Sunday is not ruled out). Increasingly unfavorable conditions over the waters off the coast of Guangdong will trigger a weakening trend and by Monday, GORING will have weakened into a severe tropical storm.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
https://tinyurl.com/GoringPH
